Physical AI agents, such as robots and other embodied systems operating under tight and fluctuating resource constraints, remain far less capable than biological agents in open-ended real-world environments. This paper argues that Active Inference (AIF), grounded in the Free Energy Principle, offers a principled foundation for closing that gap. We develop this argument from first principles, following a chain from probability theory through Bayesian machine learning and variational inference to active inference and reactive message passing. From the FEP perspective, systems that maintain their structural and functional integrity over time can, under suitable assumptions, be described as minimizing variational free energy (VFE), and AIF operationalizes this by unifying perception, learning, planning, and control within a single computational objective. We show that VFE minimization is naturally realized by reactive message passing on factor graphs, where inference emerges from local, parallel computations. This realization is well matched to the constraints of physical operation, including hard deadlines, asynchronous data, fluctuating power budgets, and changing environments. Because reactive message passing is event-driven, interruptible, and locally adaptable, performance degrades gracefully under reduced resources while model structure can adjust online. We further show that, under suitable coupling and coarse-graining conditions, coupled AIF agents can be described as higher-level AIF agents, yielding a homogeneous architecture based on the same message-passing primitive across scales. Our contribution is not empirical benchmarking, but a clear theoretical and architectural case for the engineering community.

Exhaustively evaluating many large language models (LLMs) on a large suite of benchmarks is expensive. We cast benchmarking as finite-population inference and, under a fixed query budget, seek tight confidence intervals (CIs) for model accuracy with valid frequentist coverage. We propose Factorized Active Querying (FAQ), which (a) leverages historical information through a Bayesian factor model; (b) adaptively selects questions using a hybrid variance-reduction/active-learning sampling policy; and (c) maintains validity through Proactive Active Inference -- a finite-population extension of active inference (Zrnic & Candès, 2024) that enables direct question selection while preserving coverage. With negligible overhead cost, FAQ delivers up to $5\times$ effective sample size gains over strong baselines on two benchmark suites, across varying historical-data missingness levels: this means that it matches the CI width of uniform sampling while using up to $5\times$ fewer queries. We release our source code and our curated datasets to support reproducible evaluation and future research.

Traditional neural networks, while powerful, rely on biologically implausible learning mechanisms such as global backpropagation. This paper introduces the Structurally Adaptive Predictive Inference Network (SAPIN), a novel computational model inspired by the principles of active inference and the morphological plasticity observed in biological neural cultures. SAPIN operates on a 2D grid where processing units, or cells, learn by minimizing local prediction errors. The model features two primary, concurrent learning mechanisms: a local, Hebbian-like synaptic plasticity rule based on the temporal difference between a cell's actual activation and its learned expectation, and a structural plasticity mechanism where cells physically migrate across the grid to optimize their information-receptive fields. This dual approach allows the network to learn both how to process information (synaptic weights) and also where to position its computational resources (network topology). We validated the SAPIN model on the classic Cart Pole reinforcement learning benchmark. Our results demonstrate that the architecture can successfully solve the CartPole task, achieving robust performance. The network's intrinsic drive to minimize prediction error and maintain homeostasis was sufficient to discover a stable balancing policy. We also found that while continual learning led to instability, locking the network's parameters after achieving success resulted in a stable policy. When evaluated for 100 episodes post-locking (repeated over 100 successful agents), the locked networks maintained an average 82% success rate.

Robots in uncertain real-world environments must perform both goal-directed and exploratory actions. However, most deep learning-based control methods neglect exploration and struggle under uncertainty. To address this, we adopt deep active inference, a framework that accounts for human goal-directed and exploratory actions. Yet, conventional deep active inference approaches face challenges due to limited environmental representation capacity and high computational cost in action selection. We propose a novel deep active inference framework that consists of a world model, an action model, and an abstract world model. The world model encodes environmental dynamics into hidden state representations at slow and fast timescales. The action model compresses action sequences into abstract actions using vector quantization, and the abstract world model predicts future slow states conditioned on the abstract action, enabling low-cost action selection. We evaluate the framework on object-manipulation tasks with a real-world robot. Results show that it achieves high success rates across diverse manipulation tasks and switches between goal-directed and exploratory actions in uncertain settings, while making action selection computationally tractable. These findings highlight the importance of modeling multiple timescale dynamics and abstracting actions and state transitions.

In this work, we propose that reasoning in knowledge graph (KG) networks can be guided by surprise minimization. Entities that are close in graph distance will have lower surprise than those farther apart. This connects the Free Energy Principle (FEP) from neuroscience to KG systems, where the KG serves as the agent's generative model. We formalize surprise using the shortest-path distance in directed graphs and provide a framework for KG-based agents. Graph distance appears in graph neural networks as message passing depth and in model-based reinforcement learning as world model trajectories. This work-in-progress study explores whether distance-based surprise can extend recent work showing that syntax minimizes surprise and free energy via tree structures.

Automated decision-making under uncertainty requires balancing exploitation and exploration. Classical methods treat these separately using heuristics, while Active Inference unifies them through Expected Free Energy (EFE) minimization. However, EFE minimization is computationally expensive, limiting scalability. We build on recent theory recasting EFE minimization as variational inference, formally unifying it with Planning-as-Inference and showing the epistemic drive as a unique entropic contribution. Our main contribution is a novel message-passing scheme for this unified objective, enabling scalable Active Inference in factored-state MDPs and overcoming high-dimensional planning intractability.

Failures are the norm in highly complex and heterogeneous devices spanning the distributed computing continuum (DCC), from resource-constrained IoT and edge nodes to high-performance computing systems. Ensuring reliability and global consistency across these layers remains a major challenge, especially for AI-driven workloads requiring real-time, adaptive coordination. This work-in-progress paper introduces a Probabilistic Active Inference Resilience Agent (PAIR-Agent) to achieve resilience in DCC systems. PAIR-Agent performs three core operations: (i) constructing a causal fault graph from device logs, (ii) identifying faults while managing certainties and uncertainties using Markov blankets and the free energy principle, and (iii) autonomously healing issues through active inference. Through continuous monitoring and adaptive reconfiguration, the agent maintains service continuity and stability under diverse failure conditions. Theoretical validations confirm the reliability and effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Collecting high-quality labeled data remains a challenge in data-driven research, especially when each label is costly and time-consuming to obtain. In response, many fields have embraced machine learning as a practical solution for predicting unobserved labels, such as annotating satellite imagery in remote sensing [46] and predicting protein structures in proteomics [24]. Prediction-powered inference [1] is a methodological framework showing how to perform valid statistical inference despite the inherent biases in such predicted labels. Active statistical inference [51] was recently introduced to further enhance inference by actively selecting which data points to label. The basic idea is to compute the model's uncertainty scores for all data points and prioritize collecting those labels for which the predictive model is most uncertain. When the uncertainty scores appropriately reflect the model's errors, Zrnic and Cand` es [51] show that active inference can significantly outperform prediction-powered inference (which can essentially be thought of as active inference with naive uniform sampling), meaning it results in more accurate estimates and narrower confidence intervals. However, when uncertainty scores are of poor quality, active inference can result in overly noisy estimates and large confidence intervals.

Infants often exhibit goal-directed behaviors, such as reaching for a sensory stimulus, even when no external reward criterion is provided. These intrinsically motivated behaviors facilitate spontaneous exploration and learning of the body and environment during early developmental stages. Although computational modeling can offer insight into the mechanisms underlying such behaviors, many existing studies on intrinsic motivation focus primarily on how exploration contributes to acquiring external rewards. In this paper, we propose a novel density model for an agent's own multimodal sensory experiences, called the "self-prior," and investigate whether it can autonomously induce goal-directed behavior. Integrated within an active inference framework based on the free energy principle, the self-prior generates behavioral references purely from an intrinsic process that minimizes mismatches between average past sensory experiences and current observations. This mechanism is also analogous to the acquisition and utilization of a body schema through continuous interaction with the environment. We examine this approach in a simulated environment and confirm that the agent spontaneously reaches toward a tactile stimulus. Our study implements intrinsically motivated behavior shaped by the agent's own sensory experiences, demonstrating the spontaneous emergence of intentional behavior during early development.